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                 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
                                         from Kyoto to Durban

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, say that 97% to 98% of climate researchers actively publishing in the field of climate change agree with the main conclusions of the IPCC that most of the “unequivocal” warming of the average global temperature over the second half of the 20th century is because of people. link 

       Other pages:  
  • IRENA  International Renewal Energy Association 
  • Other initiatives - C-40Cities / Branson's Carbon War Room / Rio+20 :


Since the Kyoto Protocol which came into force February 2005, disagreements at subsequent international meetings (Copenhagen, Cancun etc.) have indicated that at the governmental level, ability to bring climate change under control is failing. With global warming accelerating  and rising carbon emissions, the world is moving too slowly to prevent serious damage to the ecosystem on which life depends. This raises prospects of rising sea-levels, food shortages and increasingly extreme weather disasters such as floods and droughts which have occurred with greater frequency, particularly since 2010.

Hope may rest increasingly on initiatives by other organizations such as IRENA, the C40 cities imitative, and actions by business leaders and entrepreneurs to act where governments, especially Canada, the USA and Australia, are deadlocked and subject to pressure from “Business-as-Usual” energy corporations which have led to a virtual paralysis in leadership.

Latest news on Durban talks:

Dec. 11 2011: Climate talks end with late deal. With talks running nearly 36 hours beyond their scheduled close, UN climate talks have closed with an agreement that the chair said had "saved tomorrow, today" by forcing countries for the first time to admit that their current policies are inadequate and must be strengthened by 2015. The European Union will place its current emission-cutting pledges inside the legally-binding Kyoto Protocol, a key demand of developing countries. The agreement here has not in itself taken us off the 4C path we are on, but it has re-established the principle that climate change should be tackled through international law, not national, voluntarism." link
Getting a deal was a success, but a pitiful one - a guarantee our children will be worse off than us. The world's climate debt is soaring and postponing action threatens an environmental austerity far greater than today's economic woes. link

November 28: Canada to withdraw from Kyoto protocol. Just a few hours after talks began in Durban, Canadian environment minister Peter Kent was confirming to reporters in the capital Ottawa that its involvement with Kyoto was over. Canada declared four years ago that it did not intend to meet its existing Kyoto Protocol commitment - to bring annual emissions in the period 2008-12 down by 6% from their 1990 level. They have in fact risen by about one-third since 1990. With 12 months notice needed to withdraw, Canada would begin formally withdrawing from the protocol in December. Russia and Japan also said they would make no further cuts. link

November 28 - COP 17 begins. While arguing that the Durban climate talks are closer to a breakthrough than most people think - all we need is strong leaders - James Murray, editor of Business Green, concludes it is almost certain that we will get two weeks of bickering over technicalities that will leave those businesses leading the low carbon revolution once again having to reassure themselves that they are on the right track and their commitment to addressing the climate change threat will be vindicated. And all for the want of the kind of real political leadership made famous by Mandela and his peers. link

The 2012 UN Climate Change Conference, COP 18  will take place in Qatar
from November 26 to December 7, 2012. The Republic of Korea will
host a ministerial meeting to prepare for COP 18.
  

Cop 17 - Durban - November/December 2011

The Conference of the Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) - or its shorthand "COP17" - will be held in Durban, South Africa from November 28 to December 9 2011. No one expects that any significant new agreement will be signed, and there will be another, bigger conference at the end of 2012 in Rio de Janeiro. 20,000 delegates are expected from 194 countries. Explaining the significance of the COP17 conference, Maite Nkoana-Mashabane (pictured above with Christiana Figueras at left)), South African International Relations Minister, said, "We all feel the impacts of climate change in the increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, coastal erosion and flooding as a result of rising sea levels, increase of the occurrence of certain diseases, loss of biodiversity and economic impacts, and an increase in the number of environmental refugees. Climate change has therefore become, without any doubt, the most pressing sustainable development issue of our times."  link

Nov. 20 2011: Rich nations 'give up' on new treaty until 2020.  Ahead of critical talks in Durban, most of the world's leading economies now privately admit that no new global climate agreement will be reached before 2016 at the earliest, and that even if it were negotiated by then, they would stipulate it could not come into force until 2020. The eight-year delay is the worst contemplated by world governments during 20 years of tortuous negotiations on greenhouse gas emissions, and comes despite intensifying warnings from scientists and economists about the rapidly increasing dangers of putting off prompt action. After the Copenhagen climate talks in 2009 ended amid scenes of chaos, governments pledged to try to sign a new treaty in 2012. The date is critical, because next year marks the expiry of the current provisions of the Kyoto protocol, the only legally binding international agreement to limit emissions. link

Oct. 18 2011: The death of the Kyoto process. There seems little possibility that next month's climate summit in Durban will produce an emissions reduction agreement, meaning the world will soon lack any binding CO2 targets. Europe may soon find itself alone in the fight against global warming. The Kyoto Protocol, the world's only binding climate agreement, will soon expire. The most important means to date of compelling industrialized nations to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions seems likely to become a mere footnote in history. link

Oct. 10 2011: UN negotiators may seek to extend the Kyoto Protocol, excluding Canada, Japan and Russia, said Christiana Figueres, the UN’s top climate diplomat. The European Union’s conditional willingness to extend “has been exceedingly helpful by building a bridge” between developed and developing nations, said Figueres. Canada, Russia and China have all said they won’t accept new binding targets under Kyoto unless all major economies are bound. Any extension of Kyoto would still require agreement from about 200 nations at the talks, which would be a challenge to negotiate. The U.S. rejects the current UN system, which pools major economies such as China, India and Brazil with smaller developing nations in a group that has fewer commitments than developed countries. link

other recent news:

Oct. 7 2011: World's leading companies commit to reducing emissions. The latest round of climate change talks in Panama this week may once again end in deadlock, but that has not stopped over 90 of the world's largest businesses stepping up their calls for governments to deliver an ambitious international climate change treaty. Firms are being invited to sign up to the 2ºC Challenge Communiqué. Scheduled to be formally launched on October 20 over 90 companies have already signed up to the text, including some of the world's largest firms, such as BAA, BT, Tesco, Nestle, Johnson & Johnson, Swiss Re, Shell, Toyota, and latest signatory Ricoh.Further companies are being invited to sign up and the organisers are hoping to exceed the 1,000 firms that endorsed the Copenhagen Communiqué in 2010. link

      __________________________________________________          


U.S. is structurally unable to ever sign up to a global climate treaty with binding targets. Where do the talks go from here? For most of the last 20 years, people worried about climate change have been trying to deal with the problem by negotiating a binding global treaty to reduce the emissions that cause it. But after years of high-profile climate talks, at Rio, Nairobi, Bali, Copenhagen, Cancun, “the negotiations haven’t got us close to that deal,” says Robert Falkner, an expert on international relations and global governance at the London School of Economics. Even Christina Figueres, the United Nations’ climate change chief, now says publicly that “this planet is not going to be saved by any big bang agreement.” “The fact is that it’s unreasonable to expect that there is going to be one large comprehensive agreement that will address all issues and will miraculously change the way that we’ve been doing things for a hundred years,” she said before the last major climate negotiations, in Cancun.

With the world on a path to a 4-degree Celsius or higher temperature rise by 2100, are the negotiations simply a waste of time and resources? Is there a better way of trying to rein in emissions and help the world’s more vulnerable people deal with the impacts of climate change? A growing number of climate experts say the answer is to try adopting a “building blocks” approach to addressing climate change. That means pushing forward with thousands of smaller international, national, regional and local efforts to address the problem while keeping the talks going to, with luck, provide a framework for all the disparate pieces down the road. “That is, I would argue, the future for climate negotiations,” Falkner said at a recent conference on climate change in the Caribbean. “It is a second-best future but one we must accept as a fact.”

Efforts to negotiate one global climate treaty, he said, face several fatal flaws. The first, as virtually everyone is aware by this point, is that the United States, the world’s second biggest carbon emitter behind China, and the biggest historical producer of the gases, is unlikely to ever join a binding climate treaty. Because of the country’s divisive politics and the need for a two-thirds vote in the Senate to ratify any international treaty, “I would argue the U.S. is structurally unable to ever sign up to a global climate treaty with binding targets,” Falkner said. link

          __________________________________________________   

Background. The series of annual UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change)  talks can trace its roots to the 1992 Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. In 1997 it spawned the Kyoto Protocol which was initially adopted on December 11, 1997 and entered into force on February 16, 2005. It is a protocol to the UNFCCC and as of January 2009, 183 parties had ratified the protocol (though not the USA). Under this Protocol, industrialized countries agreed to reduce their collective greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 5.2% from the level in 1990. The Kyoto Protocol established legally binding commitments for the reduction of four greenhouse gases - carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and sulphur hexafluoride.  (See Severn Suzuki's speech at the Rio conference here) 

What is the IPCC? The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the leading international body for the assessment of climate change. It was established by the United Nations Environment Programme the (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization to provide the world with a clear scientific view on the current state of knowledge in climate change and its potential environmental and socio-economic impacts. It is endorsed by the UN General Assembly.
The IPCC is a scientific body. It reviews and assesses the most recent scientific, technical and socio-economic information produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of climate change. It does not conduct any research nor does it monitor climate related data or parameters. 
Thousands of scientists from all over the world contribute to the work of the IPCC on a voluntary basis. The IPCC is an intergovernmental body. It is open to all member countries of the United Nations (UN) and WMO. Currently 194 countries are members of the IPCC. Governments participate in the review process and the plenary Sessions, where main decisions about the IPCC work programme are taken and reports are accepted, adopted and approved. The IPCC Bureau Members, including the Chair, are also elected during the plenary Sessions.  link to IPCC

 
Between Cancun and Durban 2011

July 22 2011: New Zealand will next week play host July 25-26 July to more than 60 climate change negotiators in a meeting designed to tackle one of the key stumbling blocks to an international climate change deal ahead of the United Nation's crucial annual summit in Durban at the end of the year. New Zealand’s minister responsible for international climate change negotiations confirmed that the meeting will focus on how individual nations report and monitor their emissions and focus on the crucial issue of transparency around emissions reductions. link

Bonn 2011 wrap-up -  June 2011: Fear of deadlock looms over latest climate summit.  link 
June:
Diplomats argue over need for pre-Durban talks, as critics claim there is no point in additional meetings if progress cannot be delivered in Bonn.
link 
June:
Bonn climate talks end with no agreement on Kyoto, finance.  link

Cancun wrap-up
- The world's governments agreed to modest steps to combat climate change and to give more money to poor countries, but they put off until next year tough decisions on cutting greenhouse gas emissions. link 

May 30 2011: Major nations abstain from Kyoto process.  Russia, Japan and Canada told the G8 they would not join a second round of carbon cuts under the Kyoto Protocol at United Nations talks this year and the US reiterated it would remain outside the treaty. The future of the Kyoto Protocol has become central to efforts to negotiate reductions of carbon emissions. They argued that the Kyoto format did not require developing countries, including China, the world's No. 1 carbon emitter, to make targeted emission cuts.Last Thursday US President, Barack Obama, confirmed Washington would not join an updated Kyoto Protocol. The US, the second-largest carbon emitter, signed the protocol in 1997 but in 2001 the then president, George W. Bush, said he would not put it to the Senate for ratification. link   [June 9: Canada confirms that it would not support an extended Kyoto Protocol after 2012, joining Japan and Russia in rejecting a new round of the climate emissions pact - link]

April 2011: Bangkok.
Delegates from nearly 200 countries began a six-day U.N. meeting in the Thai capital Bangkok today on crafting a tougher climate pact that boosts global efforts to curb emissions from industry, farms and deforestation. The radiation crisis at the quake and tsunami-crippled Fukushima Daiichi nuclear complex in  Japan will probably have repercussions on the international climate negotiations. link

December 2010: BBC reports deal reached including a fund to help developing countries. Step forward to a binding agreement in South Africa next year. link  

The last round of U.N. climate talks before an annual summit in South Africa this year will be held in Panama. The inter-sessional meeting will be held in Panama City from October 1 to 7.

 Link to Guardian's Cancun page

Why Copenhagen (COP 15) failed

 A leaked letter from the United Nations' climate chief suggests the Copenhagen climate summit failed because the presence of 130 world leaders paralysed decision-making and the Danish presidency backed the US and other western nations over the interests of the poor. Yvo deBoer wrote: "Inviting heads of state seemed like a good idea. But it seriously backfired, " he wrote. "Their early arrival did not have the catalytic effect that was hoped for. link    

Analysis of Copenhagen -   What was agreed and what was left out 
Editorial on Copenhagen by Alan Burns  -
 read
  

Actions around the world in 2010

September: Meeting in Geneva. About 45 nations met to seek ways of raising billions of dollars pledged to help poor nations combat climate change, warning them of a 'long haul' as rich nations are hit by austerity cuts. Christiana Figeuras, head of the Bonn-based U.N. Climate Change Secretariat since July 2010, predicted there would be no new global treaty resulting from Cancun in December despite the Pakistan flooding and Russian heatwaves being "warning bells" about the risks of inaction. Cancun could at best end up setting a new deadline for working out a more binding deal by the end of 2012.  link  (pictured, Christiana Figeures, appointed Executive Secretary  - UNFCCC on May 17 2010.
June 8: Central African countries confront rich nations that use a forest accounting "trick" that would allow them to boost their planet warming emissions without penalty. link

Bolivia- April 20-22 2010:  More than 90 governments are sending delegations to Cochabamba, Bolivia's third largest city. Also expected to attend are scientists such as James Hansen, James Cameron, Noam Chomsky, and actors Danny Glover, Robert Redford and Susan Sarandon. Bolivian President Evo Morales will use the meeting to announce the world's largest referendum, with up to 2 billion people being asked to vote on ways out of the climate crisis. Morales says it will give a voice to the poorest people of the world and encourage governments to be far more ambitious following the failure in Copenhagen.  "There will be no secret discussions behind closed doors. The debate and the proposals will be led by communities on the frontlines of climate change and by organisations and individuals from civil society dedicated to tackling the climate crisis," said Morales. link

Call for International Climate Court. Cochabamba conference closes with call for rich countries to halve greenhouse gas emissions and set up a court to punish climate crimes - link

Nearly 100 Countries Formally 'Associate' with Copenhagen Accord.
Since the Conference of the Parties neither adopted nor endorsed the Accord, but merely took note of it, its provisions do not have any legal standing within the UNFCCC process even if some Parties decide to associate themselves with it. … The accord is a political agreement rather than a treaty instrument. The fact that so many countries have explicitly associated with the Accord (and at least as important, have submitted targets and actions) goes a long way to towards curing some of the procedural difficulties that surrounded the finalization of the Accord in Copenhagen. more

March 2010: China and India join Copenhagen accord. Since Copenhagen, there has been confusion over how a legally binding treaty to reduce greenhouse gas emissions can be achieved. All observers, including the UN's top climate official, Yvo de Boer, are now clear that no such deal will be signed in 2010, with a meeting in South Africa in December 2011 now seen as the earliest date. The US now appears isolated as India, China, and many other countries, firmly support the idea of continuing with the two existing UN negotiating tracks to try to achieve a consensus. link

February 2010: Fifty-five countries pledge to cut greenhouse emissions. Examination of the pledges shows that no countries have strengthened the commitments which they announced at Copenhagen and doubt that a deal can be agreed in 2010 still exists. link

January 2010: Investors with $13 trillion in assets call for governments rules.   
The world's largest investors issue a statement calling on the United States and other governments to "act now to catalyze development of a low-carbon economy and to attract the vast amount of private capital necessary for such a transformation."
Some 85% of the financial resources needed to cope with climate challenges must come from private sources. The U.S., European and Australian investor groups, who together represent $13 trillion in assets, called for "a price on carbon emissions" and "well-designed carbon markets" to provide "a cost-effective way of achieving emissions reductions." link
 



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