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CARBON
DIOXIDE
- CO2
| With CO2 now being declared a danger to human health by the US EPA , its significant threat as a greenhouse gas is given added importance as the leading cause of
climate change and rising temperatures on the planet. The
concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere caused by the
combustion of fossil fuels (coal, gas, & oil) has increased by around 40% since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution. As the level increases
in
the atmosphere and the oceans, we're getting further away from
the solution. How much we can safely emit is in conflict with how very
much more we produce - especially in North America. It's a problem that will
be with us, and we need to understand why it's planet Earth's greatest
threat. The planet will survive somehow, but will humanity? |
Latest news:  Jan.
12 2012: EPA publishes first greenhouse gas emissions data from large U.S sources. Power plants were the largest stationary sources of greenhouse gas
emissions in the 2010 calendar year, followed by petroleum refineries,
according to greenhouse gas emissions data reported to the U.S. EPA by large
facilities and suppliers across the country, published for the first time
today. Carbon dioxide accounted for the largest share of direct greenhouse gas
emissions with 95% followed by methane with four percent, and nitrous oxide and
several fluorinated gases accounting for the remaining one percent.link
November 2010: Global CO2 emissions drop by 1.3% to 30.8 billions tons in 2009. . link
May 2011: Worst
ever carbon emissions in 2010 leave climate on the brink. link
____________________________________________________ The lifetime in the air of CO2, the most significant man-made
greenhouse gas, is probably the most difficult to determine, because there are
several processes that remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Between 65%
and 80% of
CO2 released into the air dissolves into the ocean over a period of 20–200
years. The rest is removed by slower processes that take up to several hundreds
of thousands of years, including chemical weathering and rock formation. This
means that once in the atmosphere, carbon dioxide can continue to affect
climate for thousands of years. link
Carbon
dioxide levels varied between about 180 and 300 parts per million during the
650,000 years prior to industrialization as recorded in air bubbles trapped in
ice in Antarctica. But since industrialization began in the 18th century, the
concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has increased from about 280
to 390ppm. a rise of about 40%. Globally
each year, the land and atmosphere exchanges about 120bn tonnes of carbon,
while the oceans and atmosphere transfer about 90bn tonnes of carbon between
them. In general this natural carbon cycle is more or less in equilibrium, such
that there is no significant net change in the amount of carbon absorbed in the
atmosphere, oceans and land. But
we also know that human activities, such as burning fossil fuels, producing
cement and destroying rainforests, have disturbed the natural equilibrium of
the carbon cycle by emitting an additional 7bn tonnes each year. The land and
oceans absorb about 45% of this, but the remainder stays in the atmosphere and
leads to the annual increases in concentration which have been recorded in the
measurements from Mauna Loa, Hawaii, and elsewhere around the world. While the volume of
carbon dioxide that is exchanged between natural sources and sinks looks a lot
larger, there really is no dispute over human responsibility for the 40% rise
in concentrations in the atmosphere. link
Total
estimated U.S. greenhouse gas emissions in 2009 consisted of:
5,446.8
million metric tons of carbon dioxide - 82.8% of total emissions
730.9 million metric tons of methane - 11.1% of total emissions
219.6 million metric tons of nitrous oxide - 3.3% of total emissions
178.2 million metric tons of
hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), and
sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) -
2.7% of total emissions (link)
________________________________________________________________
Interactive climate map and sea-level rise. The Center for Remote Sensing
of Ice Sheets (CReSIS) is a Science and Technology Center established by the National Science Foundation (NSF) in 2005, with
the mission of developing new technologies and computer models to
measure and
predict the response of sea level change to the mass balance of ice
sheets in
Greenland and Antarctica. This map shows eight areas around the world,
and how they would suffer from rises between 1 and 6 meters. (map)
January 2011: Carbon Atlas Map. This interactive emissions map
shows how the rest of the world compares. New
statistics for 2009 show US emissions fell substantially in 2009, to levels not
seen since 1995-96, while China surged ahead with an increase of more than 13% on
the previous year. Europe, Russia, Canada and South Africa saw their emissions
dip, and India has risen to third place. Overall, by these estimates, global
emissions fell by a tiny 0.1%. For short periods in the wake of less severe
recessions, such as those in 1981-83, and 1991-92, emissions fell more steeply
only to continue their upward trend shortly afterwards. link - (2010 figures will take a few months before release.)
| Science Daily reports (February 2011) that new research shows that even if all greenhouse gas emissions were stopped now, temperatures would
remain higher than pre-Industrial Revolution levels because the greenhouse
gases already emitted are likely to persist in the atmosphere for thousands of
years. There would continue to be warming even if the most stringent policy
proposals were adopted, because there still would be some emission of
heat-trapping greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and methane. It is
possible temperatures would continue to escalate even if all cars, heating and
cooling systems and other sources of greenhouse gases were suddenly eliminated,
said Kyle Armour, a UW doctoral student in physics. |
November 2010: Studies show CO2 caused global warming 40 million years ago. New
studies show that during the Middle Eocene period temperatures were
much higher than today and the warming was accompanied by a doubling in
atmospheric CO2 levels. This is the first direct evidence supporting
the idea that a recently discovered period of global warming was caused
by CO2. link
What caused the rise in CO2 is unknown, though one suggestion is the
disappearance of an ocean between India and Asia as the Himalayas rose. August 2010: New model sets limits that humans can make.
European scientists have developed a new model that specifies the
maximum volumes of CO2 that humans may emit to remain below the
critical threshold for climate warming of two degrees. According to
the model, admissible CO2 emissions will increase from approximately
seven billion tonnes of carbon in the year 2000 to a maximum value of
around ten billion tonnes in 2015. In order to achieve the long-term
stabilisation of the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, the
emissions will then have to be reduced by 56% by the year 2050 and
approach zero towards the end of this century. link July 2010: Exploring global movement of CO2.
A NASA-led research team has expanded the growing global armada
of remote sensing satellites capable of studying carbon dioxide. Measurements
in the region of the atmosphere where CO2 gets transported
around the globe are also key to understanding carbon dioxide sources
and sinks. link | As of August 2011 CO2 level is 390.02 ppm - up from 371.67 ppm in March 2000 In
the last
100,000
years prior to the industrial age, global CO2 levels increased by
around 1.5 parts per million. In the last 12 months they have risen by 2.29 ppm. (See current CO2 ppm measurements here.) The most recent science tells us
that unless
we can reduce the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere to 350
parts
per million, we will cause huge and irreversible damage to the earth 350.org That mark was passed in 1988. |
Globally, power generation emits nearly 10 billion tons of CO2 per year. The
8,000 power plants in the US spew more than 25% of that - roughly 2.8 billion
tons per year. See the worst dozen power plants in the USA here.  NB: 1 ton - 2,240
lbs 1 tonne (metric) = 1000 kilos or 2200 lbs
The United
States burns through 19.5 million barrels of oil a day,
25% of the
world's consumption, more than China, Japan, India and Russia
combined.
That's 2.7 gallons a day for every man, woman and child.
Also we burn over one billion tons of coal each year.
These are the major causes of CO2 emissions.
Timeline on EPA announcements on controlling U.S. GHG emissions:
August 2011: President Obama
delays implementation until 2013. Business
groups and Republican politicians welcomed the decision, while environmentalists
condemned the move. President Obama said in a statement: "I have continued
to underscore the importance of reducing regulatory burdens and regulatory
uncertainty, particularly as our economy continues to recover." The EPA
estimated a new smog standard would cost up to $90bn a year - opponents said it
would cost more. The rules could also have saved as much as $100bn in health
costs, and helped prevent as many as 12,000 premature deaths from heart and
lung complications, according to the EPA. link
In
May 2010, the EPA
announced long-awaited final rules on Greenhouse gases (GHG). The rules
anticipate facilities responsible for 70% of the GHGs from stationary sources
get permits to operate and show they are using green technology to reduce
emissions. The EPA’s phased-in approach was to begin in January 2011, when permitting
requirements for GHGs under the Clean Air Act will kick-in for large facilities
that are already obtaining permits for other pollutants. These will be required
to include GHGs in their permits if they increase these emissions by at least
75,000 tonnes per year (tpy). Then, in July 2011 these requirements will be
expanded to cover all new facilities with GHG emissions of at least 100,000
tpy. link
In June 2011, a further delay was announced. link
From the date of the
EPA's first proposals in April 2010, manufacturers raised objections, saying
that the agency's standards were not based on adequate information, were
confusing, and were not technically achievable. In response to the
April 2010 proposals, the agency received more than 4,800 comments from
businesses and communities, including information that EPA said industry had
not provided prior to the proposals. Based on this input, EPA made extensive
revisions to the standards, and in December 2010 asked a federal district court
for additional time for review to ensure the public's input was fully
addressed. The court granted EPA only 30 days and the final rules were issued
in February 2011.
____________________________________
In February 2011, the EPA established Clean Air Act emissions standards for
large and small boilers and incinerators that burn solid waste and sewage
sludge. The standards cover more than 200,000 boilers and incinerators that
emit air pollutants, including mercury, cadmium, dioxins and particle
pollution. May 2011 they issued a stay postponing the effective date of
emissions standards for major source boilers and commercial and industrial
solid waste incinerators. Because the original boiler rule was vacated, there
is no rule currently in place. The final rules, published on March 21, 2011,
called for an effective date of May 20, 2011 with compliance deadlines
beginning three years later. link
See also: US climate agency declares CO2 public danger. link ________________________________________
May 2010: First time action to regulate truck emissions. Currently trucks consume more than two million barrels of oil a day, and
average just 6.1 mpg. They emit 20% of the greenhouse gas
pollution related to transportation. President Obama estimates that "we can increase fuel economy by as much as
25% in tractor trailers using technologies that already exist today." Obama
directed federal officials work with the State of California to develop by
September 1, 2010, a technical assessment to inform the rulemaking process.
California already has a low carbon vehicles law on the books.The aim is to have a final rule in place by July 30, 2011. link
September 2009: Nation's first vehicle greenhouse gas emissions standards announced. The Obama administration opened a new era in U.S. automotive history by proposing greenhouse gas emissions for vehicles.
The emissions standards would be paired with stronger vehicle fuel efficiency
standards in a coordinated national program to address climate change and energy
security. This is EPA's first action to curb greenhouse gases under the Clean Air Act,
using the authority upheld by the U.S. Supreme Court's 2007 decision in
Massachusetts v. EPA. link [China’s fuel economy standard for passenger cars is equivalent to 36.7 miles per
gallon, and China is reportedly considering raising this to 42.2 mpg. The U.S. standard remained at 27.5 mpg for
20 years until President Obama recently announced a new standard in May of 35.5
mpg by 2016.] |
October 2009: A new historical record of CO2 levels suggests
current political targets on climate may be "playing with fire", scientists
say.
Researchers used ocean sediments to plot CO2 levels back to the Miocene period which began a little over 20 million years ago. Carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere stood at about 400
parts per million (ppm) before beginning to decline about 14 million
years ago - a trend that eventually led to formation of the Antarctic
icecap and perennial sea ice cover in the Arctic. In the
intervening millennia, CO2 concentrations have been much lower; in the
last few million years they cycled between 180ppm and 280ppm in rhythm
with the sequence of ice ages and warmer interglacial periods. Now,
humanity's emissions of greenhouse gases are pushing towards the 400ppm
range, which will very likely be reached within a decade. "What we have
shown is that in the last period when CO2 levels were sustained at
levels close to where they are today, there was no icecap on Antarctica
and sea levels were 25-40m (80-130ft) higher," said research leader Aradhna
Tripati from the University of California at Los Angeles (UCLA). link
Fossil Fuels’ Hidden Cost Is in Billions, Study Says:
October 2009:
Burning fossil fuels costs the United States about $120 billion a year
in health costs, mostly because of thousands of premature deaths from
air pollution according to a study released by the National Academy of
Sciences. The damages are caused almost equally by coal
and oil. The study ordered by Congress set out to measure the costs not incorporated
into the price of a kilowatt-hour or a gallon of gasoline or diesel fuel. The estimates by the academy do not include damages from global warming,
which has been linked to the gases from burning fossil fuels link (This averages to $400 per person in the USA annually.) The
study also excludes damage from burning oil for trains, ships and
planes and the environmental damage from coal mining or the pollution
of rivers with chemicals that were filtered from coal plant smokestacks
to keep the air clean. Read the study here. |
European countries exceed Kyoto targets.
November 2009:
A report by the European Environment Agency released today shows that
the European Union and all Member States but one [Austria] are on track
to meet their Kyoto Protocol commitments to limit and reduce greenhouse
gas (GHG) emissions. Whereas the Protocol requires that the EU-15
reduce average emissions during 2008-2010 to 8% below 1990 levels, the
latest projections indicate that the EU-15 will go further, reaching a
total reduction of more than 13% below the base year. Looking further
ahead, almost three quarters of the EU’s unilateral target to cut
emissions to 20% below 1990 levels by 2020 could be achieved
domestically (i.e. without purchase of credits outside the EU). link
_________________________________________________________________ Where climate change will hit hardest in USA. In
1990, carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere were 354 parts
per million (ppm) and increased at a rate of 1.3 ppm per year until
reaching a level of 367 ppm in 2000. Between 2000 and today, carbon
dioxide concentrations increased at a rate of 2.44 ppm per year until
the current level of 392.94ppm (May 2010). If emissions continue at that current
rate, carbon dioxide concentrations will exceed 600 ppm by the end of the
century. Analyzing data from global climate models compiled for the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment
Report, The Nature Conservancy found that over the next 100 years
states across the USA could experience average annual temperature
increases ranging from nearly 3⁰F to more than 10⁰F.
Using the latest scientific data and climate models with geographic
information systems (GIS), statistical analysis and web-based mapping
services, the Nature Conservancy worked with a wide range of
organizations to
bring Climate Wizard which represents the first time ever that the
full range of climate history and future projections for specific
landscapes and time frames have been brought together in a
user-friendly format that is available to a mass audience. link
| May 2009: Climate change odds much worse than thought A new MIT study suggests the problem will be about twice as severe as previously estimated six years ago
- and could be even worse than that. The new projections, published in the American Meteorological
Society's Journal of Climate, indicate a median probability of surface warming
of 5.2 degrees Celsius by 2100, with a 90% probability range of 3.5 to 7.4
degrees. This can be compared to a median projected increase in the 2003 study
of just 2.4 degrees. link |
How much CO2 are we emitting? September 2009: Lord Stern, the economist who produced the single most influential political document on
climate change, in a speech at Columbia University later today, was expected to present
a report showing the world was on course to reduce overall emissions from
today's global total of 50 gigatonnes to 48 gigatonnes. That is not so far off
the figure of 44 gigatonnes needed to avoid catastrophic global warming.
Emissions, in the absence of the actions so far agreed, would rise to 65
gigatonnes by 2020. link For
the planet's
population, 2 tons per person per year has been an accepted figure
for some years - that translates to 13.6 billion tonnes globally, so we
are already exceeding that number twofold. U.S.
carbon dioxide emissions rose 1.6% in 2007 to a new record
according to the EIA. Total U.S. carbon dioxide emissions from fossil
fuels reached 5.984 billion metric tons, up from 5.888 billion metric
tons in 2006. link  In the USA we
produce, therefore, close
to 20 tons per person primarily through an energy inefficient lifestyle. A
French report in 2006 deemed that humanity must freeze its annual
carbon emissions at four billion tons (to maintain a 450 ppm goal) or
0.6 tons for each of the planet's 6.8 billion people, much less than
the 2 tons figure. In the USA, therefore, we are either producing 10x too much
(according to earlier estimates) or 30x too much (based on the French report). Either way our
carbon footprint is causing a serious threat. We
can emit some CO2
- its okay - we just produce too much. For all of human history until about 200 years ago, our atmosphere contained
275 parts per million of carbon dioxide; without some CO2 and other
greenhouse gases that trap heat in our atmosphere, our planet would be too cold
for humans to inhabit.
February 2011: CO2
emissions in U.S. rise. CO2
emissions from US power plants climbed 5.6% in 2010 over the previous year,
the biggest annual increase since the EPA began tracking emissions in 1995. Texas
power plants led the pack emitting nearly 257 million tons of CO2, as much as
the next two states, Florida and Ohio, combined. link Electricity
generators spewed 2.423 billion tons of carbon dioxide in 2010, compared with
2.295 billion tons in 2009. Coal-fired power
plants provided 45% of the country’s electricity in 2010, but were responsible
for 81% of total CO2 emissions from electricity generation last year. September 2011: Global emissions
of CO2 increased by 45% between 1990 and 2010, and reached an all-time high of
33 billion tons in 2010. Increased energy efficiency, nuclear energy and the
growing contribution of renewable energy are not compensating for the globally
increasing demand for power and transport, which is strongest in developing
countries. Over the period 1990-2010, in the European Union and Russia
CO2 emissions decreased by 7% and 28% respectively, while the USA’s emissions
increased by 5% and the Japanese emissions remained more or less constant.
There was a 5.8% increase in global CO2 emissions between 2009 and 2010
following a 1% decline in 2009. At
present, the USA emits 16.9 tons CO2 per capita per year, over twice as much as
Europe with 8.1 tons. By comparison, Chinese per capita CO2 emissions of 6.8
tons are still below the Europe average, but now equal those of Italy. It
should be noted that the average figures for China and Europe hide significant
regional differences. link October 2011: 48 billion tonnes of CO2 released in 2010. A report, published in the journal Nature
Climate Change, suggests that for a "likely" chance (more than 66%)
of holding warming below 2C by the end of this century, emissions must peak
before 2020. Scientists have warned that a lack of international will means the
chances of bringing climate change under control are “slipping out of reach”. Emission
levels will also have to drop to around 44 billion tonnes in 2020,
and then keep falling. By 2050, they will need to be well below 1990 levels at
around 20 billion tonnes, says the research. This is an ambitious goal. In 2010
emission levels were estimated to be 48 billion tonnes, (much higher than previously reported - see below). If no action is taken
to reduce global emissions, experts fear they could grow to 56 billion tonnes
in 2020. link
Hydrofluorocarbons HFCs are powerful greenhouse gases, and their
production is rising by 15% per year.
| Black Carbon -Recent studies show that black carbon -
microscopic airborne particles commonly known as soot - is also factor in global warming, especially in the Arctic.
|
CO2 levels rising too sharply The
Kyoto Protocol, which industrialized nations other than the United States have agreed to adhere
to, aims to reduce emissions in those countries 5% below 1990 levels by
2012. If we are to have a good chance of achieving that target, the
concentration of CO2 must not be allowed to exceed 450 parts per
million. To hold the average global temperature rise below 2⁰C relative to its
pre-industrial level implies that before 2050 global emissions of CO2
must be reduced to below 50% of the 1990 level (they are currently 10% above
that level) link and
on current trends could reach 550 ppm by 2035.
The increase in emissions
out-paces even
the worst-case scenarios published by scientists affiliated with the
U.N. The Paris based International
Energy Agency (IEA) declared November 7, 2007 that emissions of greenhouse gases will rise by 57% by 2030
compared to current levels, leading to a rise in Earth's surface temperature of
at least three degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit). November 2009: Global temperatures are on a path to rise by an average of 6C by the end of
the century as CO2 emissions increase and the Earth's natural ability to absorb
the gas declines, according to a major new study: CO2 emissions have risen by 29%
in the past decade alone. The new study is the most comprehensive analysis to date of how economic
changes and shifts in the way people have used the land in the past five decades
have affected the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere. Corinne Le Quéré's work, part of the Global Carbon Project, showed
that CO2 emissions from burning fossil fuels increased at an average of 3.4% a
year between 2000 and 2008 compared with 1% a year in the 1990s. link September 2009: 4⁰ C rise now unavoidable: In a dramatic acceleration of forecasts for global warming, UK
scientists say the global average temperature could rise by 4⁰ C (7.2⁰ F) as early
as 2060. link
|
Montreal Protocol
- A study in 2007 calculated the climate mitigation benefits of
the Montreal ozone treaty, which entered into force on January 1 1989
to prevent depletion of the ozone layer, as totalling the equivalent of
135bn tonnes of C02 since 1990, or a delay in global warming of
seven-twelve years. link |
June 2010: Positive use of CO2. At algae-to-biofuel
facilities across the nation, carbon dioxide is not only not the enemy,
it's an essential partner to helping achieve a low-carbon future. CO2 - along with sunlight and water - is needed to grow algae, which can in
turn produce oil, otherwise known as “oilgae” or “green crude.” Using
CO2 as a catalyst to grow algae is a more viable solution for what to
do with the plentiful gas than, for example, sequestering and burying
it underground, according to those in the industry. “Putting it
underground will not create a market. Finding a way of turning [CO2]
into something that can provide value will,” Tim Zenk, said vice president
of corporate affairs at Sapphire Energy. link January 2012: New material for removing CO2 announced.Scientists are reporting discovery of an improved way
to remove carbon dioxide from smokestacks and other sources, including the
atmosphere. Their report on the process, which achieves some of the highest CO2
removal capacity ever reported for real-world conditions where the air contains
moisture, appears in the Journal
of the American Chemical Society. Existing methods for removing carbon dioxide
from smokestacks and other sources, including the atmosphere, are energy
intensive, don't work well and have other drawbacks. In an effort to overcome
such obstacles, the group turned to solid materials based on polyethylenimine,
a readily available and inexpensive polymeric material. Their tests showed that these inexpensive materials achieved
some of the highest CO2 removal rates ever reported for humid air, under
conditions that stymie other related materials. After capturing CO2, the
materials give it up easily so that it can be used in making other substances,
or permanently isolated from the environment. The capture material then can be
recycled and reused many times over without losing efficiency. The researchers
suggest the materials may be useful on submarines, in smokestacks or out in the
open atmosphere, where they could clean up carbon dioxide pollution that comes
from small point sources like cars or home heaters, representing about half of
the total CO2 emissions related to human activity.
link
September 2009: $300 billion cut in fossil fuel subsidies will cut global GHG emissions by 10%. G-20 Countries Will Phase Out Fossil Fuel Subsidies.
At the close of the G-20 summit in Pittsburgh, President Obama
said, "We agreed to phase out subsidies for fossil fuels (coal, oil
& gas) so that we can transition to a 21st century energy economy -
an historic effort that would ultimately phase out nearly $300 billion
in global subsidies." link (Subsidies are hard to eliminate however due to industry's pressure .) A forest of 100,000 "artificial trees" could be
deployed within 10 to 20 years to help soak up the world's carbon emissions.
The trees are among three geo-engineering ideas  highlighted as
practical in a new report. The authors from the Institution of
Mechanical Engineers say that without geo-engineering it will be
impossible to avoid dangerous climate change. The team studied
hundreds of different options but have put forward just three as being
practical and feasible using current technology. The authors of this
report say that geo-engineering of the type they propose should be used
on a short-term basis to buy the world time, but in the long term it is
vital to reduce emissions. They define two types of
geo-engineering. The first category attempts to cool the planet by
reflecting some of the sunlight away. The problem with this is that it
just masks the problem. The other type of geo-engineering is to remove
carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and store it. link August 2010: Geo-engineering would not prevent sea-level rise - new study
World's Wetlands - A "Carbon Bomb"The
world's wetlands, threatened by development, dehydration and climate change,
could release a planet-warming "carbon bomb" if they are destroyed: Wetlands contain 771 billion tons
of greenhouse gases, one-fifth of all the carbon on Earth and about the same
amount of carbon as is now in the atmosphere, the scientists said before an
international conference linking wetlands and global warming. See wetlands page for more details.
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